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Double Secret PATTERN Scoring – Update for June 1, 2020

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We post news and comment on federal criminal justice issues, focused primarily on trial and post-conviction matters, legislative initiatives, and sentencing issues.

BAIT AND SWITCH?

bait200601For those of you who just came in, the First Step Act, among many other things, mandated that the Federal Bureau of Prisons would employ a state-of-the-art risk and needs assessment program, intended to determine how likely an inmate was to be a recidivist upon release, and what programs would best address the factors making him or her likely to reoffend.

First Step provided that inmates could then earn credits for successfully completing the programming, credits that would enable them to go home earlier or obtain extra halfway house.

It was intended to be a win all around.

The Dept. of Justice conducted a 10-month long study-and-comment period beginning in April 2019 on how to best develop a risk and need assessment program that met First Step standards. That resulted in adoption of PATTERN (“Prisoner Assessment Tool Targeting Estimated Risk and Needs” for you folks who eschew acronyms). PATTERN employed a series of about a dozen static and dynamic factors to provide an aggregate number placing the inmate being tested in the minimum, low, medium or high category.

The original PATTERN factors were very publicly modified last January to lessen the risk that PATTERN might be unconsciously biased so that it returned higher scores for racial minorities. And with that, PATTERN was ready for use.

The BOP announced that all inmates had been rated by PATTERN, but a number of people from different institutions expressed frustration at getting their PATTERN score from BOP staff. A few swore their BOP case managers had no idea what PATTERN even was. Using the revised PATTERN matrix over the past four months, I have helped several people estimate their PATTERN scores. But in almost every case, when the people I helped received their actual PATTERN scores from the BOP, those scores were higher – sometimes much higher – and the reason for the discrepancy was a mystery.

topsecret200601We may now have an answer to the conundrum, but it is not a pretty one. ProPublica, an independent investigative journalism nonprofit, last week reported that it had obtained a 20-page policy document drafted by the BOP earlier this year that altered the PATTERN standards to make “it harder for an inmate to qualify as minimum risk.” The draft document, which does not appear to have been finalized, dramatically changes the maximum number of points for each risk category, according to ProPublica. “It really tanks the whole enterprise if, once an instrument is selected, it can be strategically altered to make sure low-risk people don’t get released,” Brandon Garrett, a Duke University law professor who studies risk assessment, was quoted as saying. “If you change the cut points, you’ve effectively changed the instrument.”

ProPublica said a BOP spokesman had confirmed that the Bureau had revised the risk categories without informing the public. The 2019 report was an “interim report,” ProPublica quotes the spokesman as having said. “The interim report mentioned that DOJ would seek feedback and update the tool accordingly, which was done.” The spokesman said the draft policy document “was not authorized for release.”

So, as Dean Wormer might have said, it’s like a double secret PATTERN score.

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Ohio State University law professor Doug Berman wrote in his Sentencing Policy and Law blog that the ProPublica report was “yet another ugly example of how the Department of Justice acts more like a Department of Incarceration.”

The ProPublica report came in a week in which former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen was sent to home confinement, although he has served only a third of his sentence. The Cohen and Paul Manafort releases, a Marshall Project/NBC report said, are “raising questions about the BOP’s opaque process and its fairness.”

ProPublica reported that Senators Richard Durbin (D-Illinois) and Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), who were First Step Act co-authors, said last week the DOJ’s inspector general has agreed to examine BOP’s compliance with Barr’s home confinement directive and overall response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

ProPublica, Bill Barr Promised to Release Prisoners Threatened by Coronavirus — Even as the Feds Secretly Made It Harder for Them to Get Out (May 26)

Sentencing Law and Policy, “Bill Barr Promised to Release Prisoners Threatened by Coronavirus — Even as the Feds Secretly Made It Harder for Them to Get Out” (May 27)

The Marshall Project, Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort Got to Leave Federal Prison Due to COVID-19. They’re The Exception (May 21)

– Thomas L. Root

Dept. of Low Expectations – Update for October 8, 2019

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We post news and comment on federal criminal justice issues, focused primarily on trial and post-conviction matters, legislative initiatives, and sentencing issues.

ONE BILL GETS REPORTED FROM ONE COMMITTEE, AND EVERYONE THINKS HE’S GOING HOME

release191008A few readers complained last week that I had not reported the House Judiciary Committee’s vote that sent H.R. 4018 to the House floor. H.R. 4018 is a bill that would modify the Elderly Offender Home Detention Program (34 USC § 60541(g)(5)) to let those over-60 year old prisoners qualify for home detention after doing two-thirds of their net sentence rather than their gross sentence.

Currently, to qualify for the First Step Act’s expanded EOHD program, you must be 60 years old and have served two-thirds of your whole sentence. In other words, if you were sentenced to 100 months, you have to serve 67 months before you go home on home detention, and then you stay in detention until you reach 85 months, when you are released.

H.R. 4018, a single-sponsor bill, would qualify a 60-year old prisoner after he or she did two thirds of the net sentence. If you were sentenced to 100 months, you get out after 85 months with good time. H.R. 4018 would put you in the EOHD with two thirds of 85 months. Thus, you would go home after 57 months, and stay on home detention until 85 months.

longodds191008The House Judiciary Committee reported the bill favorably on Sept. 10 by a 28-8 vote. Nevertheless, Skopos Labs – which tracks federal legislation – gives the bill a 3% chance of becoming law. The legislation, with only 10 House co-sponsors, had little chance of being brought up for a Senate vote even before the impeachment talk ramped up. Recall how the First Step Act, with the House passing a very pro-prisoner version, barely made it to the Senate floor. That bill, with over 40 Senate co-sponsors and President Trump lobbying for passage, finally passed as a well watered-down measure in the closing hours of the Senate.

I did not mention H.R. 4018 for the same reason I did not mention the proposed Prohibiting Punishment of Acquitted Conduct Act of 2019, introduced Sept. 26 by Senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Dick Durbin (D-Illinois). The bill would prohibit federal courts from considering acquitted conduct at sentencing, defining ‘acquitted conduct’ to include “acts for which a person was criminally charged and adjudicated not guilty after trial in a Federal, State, Tribal, or Juvenile court, or acts underlying a criminal charge or juvenile information dismissed upon a motion for acquittal.”

Grassley, who is Senate president pro tempore, said, “If any American is acquitted of charges by a jury of their peers, then some sentencing judge shouldn’t be able to find them guilty anyway and add to their punishment.” Currently, the Guidelines are written to run up the sentence with acquitted conduct, and judges do it all the time.

mcconnell180219This bill, S.2566, already has five co-sponsors, two Democrats and three Republicans. Grassley has a lot of horsepower in the Senate leadership. Yet, like H.R. 4018, it has no more than a ghost of a chance of passage. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), controls what bills reach the Senate floor for a vote. He has been an opponent of any prison reform, and only brought First Step to a vote because of White House pressure. Now, with President Trump soured on criminal justice legislation and preoccupied with re-election and impeachment, there won’t be any White House support for bringing any criminal justice measure to a Senate vote.

Stories like this don’t help: Last Friday, the Providence, Rhode Island, Journal reported that Joel Francisco, released from a life sentence for crack because of the First Step Act, is wanted for stabbing a man to death in a hookah bar. Remember Wendell Callahan? The Sen. Tom Cottons (R-Arkansas) of the world are always gleeful to have a poster child against sentencing reform like this fall into their laps.

H.R.4018 – To provide that the amount of time that an elderly offender must serve before being eligible for placement in home detention is to be reduced by the amount of good time credits earned by the prisoner (reported favorably by House Judiciary Committee, Sept. 10)

S. 2566: A bill to amend section 3661 of title 18, United States Code, to prohibit the consideration of acquitted conduct at sentencing (Introduced Sept. 26)

Providence, Rhode Island, Journal, He was released early from prison in February. Now he’s wanted for a murder on Federal Hill (Oct. 4)

– Thomas L. Root

First Step May Pass Today, But Amendment Battle Looms – Update for December 18, 2018

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We post news and comment on federal criminal justice issues, focused primarily on trial and post-conviction matters, legislative initiatives, and sentencing issues.

SENATE VOTES TO CLOSE DEBATE, SET FIRST STEP UP FOR A FINAL VOTE AS EARLY AS TODAY

firststepB180814The First Step Act of 2018 (S.3747), cleared a major hurdle last night, with the Senate voting 82-12 to end debate on the bill and steer the legislation to a final vote, likely scheduled for today.

Procedurally, the bill has been amended into another pending bill, formerly known as the Save Our Seas Act of 2018, S. 756. The bill is now being called the Senate Criminal Justice Reform Act.

A different version passed the House earlier this year, so the House would have to pass the Senate version, or a conference committee would have to work out a compromise before the bill would come to President Trump for a signature.

Before a final Senate vote, the bill’s 35 sponsors will have to defeat so-called “legislative poison pills” that they say are designed to kill the compromise that has been carefully negotiated among Democrats, Republicans and the Trump administration. “There are a number of members with outstanding concerns that they feel are still unresolved… The Senate will be considering amendments before we vote on final passage later this week,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) said ahead of the vote.

Look out, Sen. Cotton, here comes First Step...
Look out, Sen. Cotton, here comes First Step…

Sens. Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) and John Kennedy (R-Louisiana) will get a vote on their amendment that would bar people convicted of various offenses, including sex crimes and crimes of violence, from being able to qualify for shortened sentences, although they could still earn credits that would get them more halfway house, home confinement and in-prison privileges. The legislation already has a 50 or so exclusions, but Cotton and Kennedy want to add more crimes to the list. Sens. Patrick J. Toomey (R-Pennsylvania), Jon Kyl (R-Arizona) and John Barrasso (R-Wyoming) have endorsed Cotton and Kennedy’s effort, suggesting that they, too, are uncomfortable with the underlying bill.

The Cotton-Kennedy amendment would only need a majority to pass, so some Republicans will have to band with Democratic senators to kill it. And senators who wrote the bill say there are already a number of safeguards meant to prevent violent criminals from being prematurely released.

“From the standpoint that they aren’t specifically mentioned, the answer is, that’s true, they aren’t,” Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) said. But “the reasons they aren’t is because we think that other parts of the law cover it and also the process that somebody has to go through to get a review of their sentence, the prosecutors gotta go through that as well.”

poison pillSen. Dick Durbin (D-Illinois), who helped craft the deal along with Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Mike Lee (R-Utah), warned that as currently drafted that he believes Cotton’s amendments are “poison pills” meant to undercut the legislation as a whole. “The amendments that he will propose tomorrow, the senator from Arkansas, have been opposed by groups across the board, left and right, conservative, progressive, Republican, Democrat, they all oppose his amendments. …If he goes with the amendments we’ve seen, we’re going to have to do our best to oppose him,” Durbin said. 

Most if not all Democrat senators are expected to support First Step, although they emphasize that the bill alone is not enough. “It is a compromise of a compromise,” Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-California) said in a statement yesterday announcing her support for the bill. “We ultimately need to make far greater reforms if we are to right the wrongs that exist in our criminal justice system.” 

Washington Post, Criminal justice bill clears hurdle in the Senate on strong bipartisan vote (Dec. 17)

The Hill, Senate votes to end debate on criminal justice reform bill (Dec. 17)

– Thomas L. Root

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McConnell Blinks! FIRST STEP Will Be Voted on This Month – Update for December 12, 2018

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We post news and comment on federal criminal justice issues, focused primarily on trial and post-conviction matters, legislative initiatives, and sentencing issues.

MCCONNELL TO BRING FIRST STEP TO A VOTE

firststep180814Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) folded yesterday, announcing during a floor speech that the Senate will vote this month on the FIRST STEP Act, S.3649.

McConnell said the Senate will take up the legislation, written by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa), Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Illinois) and several other Democratic and GOP senators, despite the controversial nature of the bill within the Senate Republican ranks. The bill could be debated as early as the end of this week.

Proponents of the bill believe the changes could receive as many as 85 votes in the Senate. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin), who also privately pressured McConnell to take up the bill, has pledged swift action before the House leaves town for the year-end holidays.

The decision to put the bill to a vote comes “at the request of the president and following improvements to the legislation” secured by several senators, McConnell said.

At this time, no one knows what FIRST STEP’s sponsors had to give away, but Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) said last Friday that he was supporting the measure now because it would be amended to prevent those convicted of crimes of violence from benefitting from earning earlier release for completing programs that reduce recidivism.

novacation181212McConnell warned that because of the decision to add the criminal justice bill to the Senate agenda, “members should now be prepared to work between Christmas and New Year’s.” He urged senators to “work together or prepare for a very, very long month.” On the Senate’s to-do list is passing a farm bill, averting a partial government shutdown and clearing the deck of judicial and executive branch nominations.

The legislation has the strong support of Trump and his adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner. Responding to McConnell’s announcement, Trump’s daughter Ivanka tweeted, “It’s official . . . the #FIRSTStepAct is headed to the floor for a vote. This historic legislation will reform our prison system and lift millions of Americans!”

Washington Post, McConnell to bring up criminal-justice bill for a Senate vote (Dec. 11)

The New York Times, Criminal Justice Bill Will Go Up for a Vote, McConnell Says (Dec. 11)

– Thomas L. RootLISAStatHeader2small

Progress on FIRST STEP, or Just Generating Heat Without Light? – Update for December 10, 2018

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We post news and comment on federal criminal justice issues, focused primarily on trial and post-conviction matters, legislative initiatives, and sentencing issues.

FIRST STEP GETS KNOCKED DOWN, BUT IT GETS UP AGAIN, CAN MCCONNELL EVER KEEP IT DOWN?

The lyrics from “Tubthumping,” Chumbawamba’s 1997 hit, describe the FIRST STEP Act’s week. The bill got knocked down early in the week by inaction and demagoguery, to the point that pundits were writing the bill’s obituary last Thursday. But the prison and sentencing reform act stumbled back up again on Friday, with three surprisingly positive developments.

chumba181210FIRST STEP is still far from being passed, but the pressure (for a change) is on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) instead of on the bill’s supporters. Sen. John Thune (R-South Dakota) seemed to signal that McConnell may yield to pressure. On Face the Nation yesterday, Sen. Thune said of FIRST STEP, “There are timing issues associated with it but there – at the moment at least there are still some substantive issues that are being resolved. I think if they get that worked out, if they can attract the support of more Republican Senators, there – there’s still an opportunity I think for that to be finished this year, but if not obviously it – it will be taken up again next year-”

The big news of the week came late on Friday, when President Trump decided to check back in on the bill, and pressured McConnell to bring FIRST STEP to a vote during the crowded lame duck session. After going mostly silent on the bill for several weeks, Trump singled McConnell out on Friday on his Twitter feed:

tweet181210

Trump’s public demands do not guarantee McConnell will bring the bill to a vote. He has told Trump several times that the Senate calendar is too cluttered in December to take up a bill that divides Republicans. As late as Thursday, McConnell had not mentioned the bill at either of two GOP senator meeting, and he has reportedly told senators there’s almost no window to take up the bill this year, according to multiple GOP sources.

One McConnell adviser said the senator does not intend to have a vote on the legislation because he does not have enough time and is more focused on other things — like funding the government and confirming judges. “He doesn’t like the bill,” the Washington Post reported Republican donor Doug Deason, a key White House ally, said of McConnell’s view of FIRST STEP. “He’s a Jeff Sessions-style, lock-them-up-and-throw-away-the-key kind of guy.”

mcconnell180219White House officials say McConnell doesn’t want a vote unless the overwhelming majority of Republicans will vote for it — although both Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) and Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) said that 28 or 30 GOP senators support the bill. There are 51 Senate Republicans, and nearly all of the 49 Senate Democrats are expected to back it.

McConnell complained at a Wall Street Journal event last week that such a bill requires a week or ten days to consider, while there are only two weeks left before the planned holiday recess and budget bills that must be passed. FIRST STEP advocates argue that it would only take a few days, with a cloture vote capping debate at 30 hours. McConnell acknowledged support on both sides of the aisle but called the legislation “extremely divisive inside the Senate Republican conference,” with more members undecided or opposed than in favor.

“That’s his calling card, protecting his conference,” said Kevin Ring, president of FAMM. The Atlantic suggested yesterday that while past majority leaders like Lyndon Johnson might have strong-armed their members, McConnell waits for near-unanimity among Senate Republicans. “I think he’s not just looking for 60 votes,” said Brett Tolman, a former U.S. Attorney in Utah who also worked as a GOP Senate staffer and now advocates for criminal-justice reform. “He’s looking for a majority of Republicans.”

But it's not a bad thing.
                   But it’s not a bad thing.

Earlier in the week, FIRST STEP opponents Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas), John Kennedy (R-Louisiana) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) seemed to be on a roll, denouncing FIRST STEP as giving immediate release to sexual predators, drug kingpins and gun-toting gangbangers. But Friday, just before Trump’s renewed support,     Sen. Cruz flipped, issuing a press release pledging support:

“I have long supported criminal justice reform. I believe in reducing mandatory minimum sentences for non-violent drug offenders, and providing greater opportunities for offenders to be rehabilitated. At the same time, I do not believe we should be granting early release to violent offenders.

“That is why I drafted an amendment that would exclude violent offenders from being released early. I’m happy to report that, after working closely with the White House and the sponsors of this bill, they have decided to accept my amendment. This new version of the bill resolves my concerns, and is one that I wholeheartedly support and cosponsor.”

firststep180814Also, last Friday a leading FIRST STEP opponent announced his support of key planks of the legislation. Larry Leiser, president of the National Association of Assistant U.S. Attorneys, told the Washington Examiner he supports in principle three of four major sentencing reforms included in FIRST STEP.

The possible turning of the tide seems to have little effect on McConnell’s reluctance to hold a vote. He has angered some GOP senators and created an unusual rift with Sen. Grassley, a longtime McConnell ally. Grassley has spent years building a coalition around FIRST STEP and is pushing hard for a vote this year. “We’ve done what needs to be done,” Grassley said about the overwhelming support for the bill. “So what’s holding it up?”

On Friday, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) intervened, talking directly to President Trump about attaching the criminal justice legislation to the must-pass year-end spending bill, which is already tangled in a separate fight over funds for the border wall with Mexico. “Just talked with President,” Graham tweeted. “He strongly believes criminal justice reform bill must pass now. He also indicated he supports putting criminal justice reform bill on year-end spending bill which must include MORE wall funding.”

The spending bill will need approval by Dec. 21 to avoid a funding lapse days before Christmas.

On Thursday, Sen. Lee said there were 28 hard “yes” Republican votes plus 49 Democrats for the bill. “It’s rock-solid,” he said. But Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), the Senate Republican whip, said more Republicans needed to be convinced. “Right now we have a majority of the Republican conference either undecided or no,” he told reporters. He also continued to call for some changes to the bill.

reefer181210Despite Sen. Lee’s assurance that he has 49 Democrat votes in favor of FIRST STEP, The Hill reported Wednesday Democrats who are mulling 2020 presidential bids have split over whether to support FIRST STEP. The decision to support or oppose the bill is a significant policy decision for 2020 Democrat candidates.

Among Republican senators, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) told CNN that there’s a generational divide within the party on the issue. “I think there are people who were teenagers in 1937 watching ‘Reefer Madness’ and they’re still concerned that Reefer Madness is going to take over and everybody is going to become zombies, hacking and killing everyone if they smoke pot,” said Sen. Paul, a FIRST STEP supporter. “And then there are a couple of generations after 1937 of people who don’t see it with the same degree of evil.”

The Atlantic, Mitch McConnell Appears to Be Killing Bipartisan Sentencing Reform (Dec. 9)

Politico, Trump leans on McConnell to vote on criminal justice reform (Dec. 7)

The Hill, Criminal justice reform splits 2020 Democrats (Dec. 5)

Washington Examiner, Trump pushes Congress to pass floundering sentencing reform bill (Dec. 7)

Washington Post, McConnell tells White House little chance of Senate vote on criminal justice bill (Dec. 6)

Pittsburgh Tribune, McConnell blocks sentencing bill, upsetting Grassley, GOP (Dec. 7)

– Thomas L. Root

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FIRST STEP Going Nowhere Fast – Update for December 3, 2018

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We post news and comment on federal criminal justice issues, focused primarily on trial and post-conviction matters, legislative initiatives, and sentencing issues.

MCCONNELL EQUIVOCATES AS COTTON YELLS “SEX OFFENDER!” IN BID TO TANK FIRST STEP ACT

Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), chairman of Judiciary Committee, introduced the long-awaited hybrid FIRST STEP Act (S.3649) last Monday, and moved it out of Committee to the floor of the Senate the same day. That’s pretty much good news of the week.

whipping181203President Trump is still pressing the Senate to take action this year, and the ACLU is running ads in Kentucky demanding that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) schedule a floor vote. McConnell said last Tuesday that he will go where the votes are within the Republican Party. “We will be whipping that to see whether — what the consensus is — if there is a consensus in our conference about not only the substance, but the timing of moving forward with that particular piece of legislation,” McConnell told reporters.

Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Missouri) said last Friday that at least half of the Republican conference supported the bill. “If we get to it this year, it’ll be largely because of White House pressure,” said Blunt, a member of the GOP Senate leadership. “My guess is that at least half of our members are for it and most of the Democrats.”

As of yesterday, McConnell was declining to talk about his plans for FIRST STEP. An unnamed attendee at a White House meeting last Tuesday, which McConnell attended as well, assessed the prospect that McConnell will put FIRST STEP on the floor at “less than 50/50.”

nothappen181016The Washington Post reported last Tuesday that Republicans are actively discussing changes to FIRST STEP in order to win more GOP support. One change being discussed privately is tightening the “safety valve” provision. Although the most recent draft of the bill broadens the people eligible for “safety valve” treatment, Sen. David Perdue (R-Georgia) said senators are talking about reducing the people who would qualify for the “safety valve” provision.

Breitbart.com reported Saturday that a Senate document circulating among FIRST STEP opponents lists 20 violent crimes it says would be eligible for early release under the bill. The letter lists crimes including failing to register as a sex offender, drug trafficking, assaulting law enforcement, and making death threats against U.S. lawmakers, asks, among other things, whether the Senate can “trust the BOP to correctly categorize who is high vs. low risk?”

This is consistent with vocal complaints last week from Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas), FIRST STEP’s biggest opponent, that sex offenders could get off easy. He based his claim on a Dept. of Justice report that the bill could make people convicted of some sex crimes eligible for early release.

Ohio State University law professor Doug Berman lamented last week in his Sentencing Law and Policy blog that, while it seems “a super-majority of all Senators (representing a super-super majority of the nation’s population) want this legislation enacted… that a few Senators from a few states can, in essence, exercise a heckler’s veto highlights why thoughtful federal criminal justice reform has been so very hard.”

CNN, Mitch McConnell faces tough choice on criminal justice proposal (Dec. 2, 2018)

Politico, White House makes last-ditch push on criminal justice reform bill (Nov. 27, 2018)

Washington Post, Senate Republicans mull changes to controversial criminal justice bill (Nov. 26, 2018)

Breitbart.com, Exclusive — GOP Senate document lists 20 violent crimes eligible for early release under criminal justice reform bill (Dec. 1, 2018)

– Thomas L. Root

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Still Some Life Left in FIRST STEP? – Update for November 26, 2018

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We post news and comment on federal criminal justice issues, focused primarily on trial and post-conviction matters, legislative initiatives, and sentencing issues.

FELLOW REPUBLICANS URGE MCCONNELL TO PUT FIRST STEP TO A VOTE

intimidation181126Republican senators last week put a full-court press on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) to bring the modified FIRST STEP Act to the Senate floor before Congress adjourns for the year on Dec. 14. 

[Update: The Senate Judiciary Committee reported the modified FIRST STEP Act, now S.3649, to the floor on Monday, November 26, 2018].

McConnell has been coy about the bill’s prospects, even with the backing of President Donald Trump and his son-in-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner. McConnell’s intransigence in the face of Trump’s urging and the demands of his own party could open a new divide between McConnell and Trump weeks after they worked together to widen the Senate majority in the midterm elections.

If the Senate does not pass FIRST STEP in the next two weeks, the bill would have to be reintroduced in January, and would a Democrat-controlled House that would probably include a lot of sentencing reform provisions that would be non-starters in the Senate.

“This really does need to get done this year,” Sen. Mike Lee (R – Utah) said in an interview. “Saying that we’ll do it next year is tantamount to saying this just isn’t going to get done.”

In general, McConnell doesn’t like voting on legislation that divides Senate Republicans. FIRST STEP has been controversial among a few conservative Republicans for months, even sparking a Twitter argument between Lee and Sen. Tom Cotton (R – Arkansas), last Monday.

“Unaccountable politicians and those who live behind armed guards may be willing to gamble with your life,”  Cotton wrote in a USA Today op-ed piece Nov. 15. “But why should you?”

cotton171226And Sen. John Kennedy (R-Louisiana) argued earlier this month, “A dangerous person who is properly incarcerated can’t mug your sister. If we’re not careful with this, somebody is going to get killed.”

In the past three years, Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa), chairman of the Judiciary Committee, blocked a Democratic Supreme Court nominee, pushed through an army of conservative judges and secured confirmation two Trump nominees.

Grassley had some chits to call in when he spoke to McConnell last Monday morning about FIRST STEP. I have been there for you, Grassley told McConnell, and I would hope this is something that you would help me make happen, the New York Times reported that three people familiar with the call said.

Meanwhile, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) told NBC a week ago that he’s confident FIRST STEP would receive 80 votes in the Senate, and would be a positive first step for the government in the wake of a contentious midterm election cycle. “Let’s start 2019 on a positive note,” Graham said. “I’m urging Sen. McConnell to bring the bill to the floor of the Senate. It would get 80 votes. Mr. President, pick up the phone and push the Republican leadership… The Republicans are the problem here, not the Democrats.”

FIRST STEP proponents fear McConnell will let the short window for consideration this year slide shut rather let a vote go forward on a complicated issue that divides Republicans. Republican senators allied with Grassley, including Lee, Graham and Tim Scott of South Carolina, began last week to contact wavering colleagues by phone. Kushner convened a call with business groups to praise the changes, and the White House circulated a USA Today op-ed that Kushner wrote with Tomas J. Philipson, a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump, the president’s eldest son and daughter, blasted supportive messages to their millions of Twitter followers urging Congress to move quickly.

firststepslamduck181126Kushner reportedly plans to ask Trump to lobby McConnell directly by phone, but is waiting to line up more Republican support first, according to two people familiar with his thinking. Trump is not waiting for Kushner’s request, already using Twitter last Friday to urge McConnell and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to pass the “badly needed” criminal justice reform bill.

McConnell has not yet budged. In a statement Friday, a spokesman for McConnell told The New York Times: “The support for, and length of time needed to move the new bill is not knowable at this moment.”

Earlier this month, McConnell told the Louisville Courier Journal, “We don’t have a whole lot of time left, but the first step is to finalize what proponents are actually for. There have been a lot of different versions floating around. And then we’ll whip it and see where the vote count is.”

Wall Street Journal, McConnell Controls Fate of Criminal-Justice Overhaul Bill (Nov. 20, 2018)

CNBC, Trump pushes Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer to pass ‘badly needed’ bipartisan criminal justice reform bill that’s stalled in the Senate (Nov. 23, 2018)


The New York Times, McConnell Feels the Heat From the Right to Bring Criminal Justice Bill to a Vote (Nov. 20, 2018)

The Hill, Graham urges GOP leadership to bring vote on criminal justice reform (Nov. 18, 2018)

– Thomas L. Root

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Trump Backs FIRST STEP, but Future Remains Uncertain – Update for November 15, 2018

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We post news and comment on federal criminal justice issues, focused primarily on trial and post-conviction matters, legislative initiatives, and sentencing issues.

PRESIDENT BACKS FIRST STEP

In a late afternoon press conference yesterday, President Trump threw his support behind the FIRST STEP Act, increasing the likelihood that the legislation will be passed by the Senate.

firststep1800509Several people involved in the negotiations had cautioned on Tuesday that the emerging agreement required an explicit endorsement from Trump in order to pass. Supporters of the bill would begin gauging support for the bill later this week, officials said, if Trump signed off on the measure.

Trump congratulated his own administration for making FIRST STEP happened. That claim may be true, because an August peace conference sponsored by the White House got Sens. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) and Richard Durbin (D-Illinois) – who had been hostile to FIRST STEP because it omitted sentencing reform of the type they championed in the Sentencing Reform and Corrections Act of 2017 – on board.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), who has been quiet – if not downright dismissive – on the merits of FIRST STEP, appears unlikely to take the lead in formally rounding up support, however. And some liberal Democrats may not ultimately endorse the compromise product, fearing they have conceded too much to the right on the sentencing changes. Certainly, spirited opposition from the right is expected from perennial reform foe Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas).

cotton171226McConnell is expected to order a whip count later this week, and has pledged to bring the bill to the floor for a vote if the count shows 60 votes in favor of the bill. Trump’s support came after several law enforcement associations announced their backing for the legislation.

The National District Attorneys Association, which represents 2,500 district attorneys and 40,000 assistant district attorneys, became the latest law enforcement organization to support the bill, according to a letter the group’s president addressed to Trump. “This legislation is a bipartisan effort to address front-end sentencing reform and back-end prison reform, and our association is appreciative of your efforts to partner with the Nation’s prosecutors on this important matter,” association President Jonathan Blodgett wrote in the letter, obtained by CNN.

Washington Post, Trump endorses bipartisan criminal-justice reform bill (Nov. 15, 2018)

CNN, Trump to announce support for criminal justice overhaul proposal (Nov. 14, 2018)

Wall Street Journal, Trump Supports Changes to Criminal-Justice System (Nov. 14, 2018)

– Thomas L. Root

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Senate Reconvenes with FIRST STEP Act on Its Plate – Update for November 13, 2018

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We post news and comment on federal criminal justice issues, focused primarily on trial and post-conviction matters, legislative initiatives, and sentencing issues.

IT’S THE WITCHING HOUR FOR FIRST STEP

The Senate reconvenes today for what promises to be a busy lame-duck session, one that may be easier for Republicans to manage because they retained control of the Senate after last week’s bruising mid-term election.

firststep180814The biggest task facing the Senate is to address the budget ahead of a December 7th deadline. But equally important to 5,000 of our readers who happen to be guests of Uncle Sam’s Bureau of Prisons, the Senate has a final chance before the end of the year to pass a bill that combines prison and sentencing reforms calculated to improve the lives of more than 180,000 federal inmates while increasing the odds that they will never be inmates again.

The FIRST STEP Act (S. 2795), a pronounceable acronym for the “Formerly Incarcerated Reenter Society Transformed Safely Transitioning Every Person Act,” offers prison programs in an attempt to reduce inmates’ likelihood to re-offend after they’ve been released. The House approved the bill in May. In August, the White House brokered a compromise among several senators, including Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) and Richard Durbin (D-Illinois), to include some sentence reform provisions from the Sentencing Reform and Corrections Act of 2017 (S.1917), which the Senate Judiciary Committee approved last winter. 

The amended Act will reportedly be introduced in the Senate today.


The changes that would flow from passage of FIRST STEP are incremental but significant: Increases in compassionate release of terminally ill inmates: bans on restraints for pregnant inmates during childbirth, cuts to some mandatory minimum sentences, greater leeway for judges imposing sentences, more good time, elderly inmate home confinement, and programs that let inmates earn more time in halfway house and home confinement.


But some tough decisions and hard bargaining lie ahead. The bill is hotly debated and opposed by some conservatives who worry it may release dangerous people prone to reoffend and overburden local police. There is also fear that mixing sentencing reform with prison reforms, which have generally had more support among lawmakers, will threaten chances of passing a criminal justice bill this year before having to start all over again with a new Congress.

Georgetown University law professor Shon Hopwood said he thinks legislators have found a compromise that can pass Congress and be signed into law. FIRST STEP will not bring retroactive relief to that many inmates, but Hopwood still says the reforms would bring about concrete changes in the lives of many federal inmates.


grassley180604Sen. Grassley said last month he thinks the plan to combine the FIRST STEP with his own SRCA can get through the Senate. “We’ve already worked out what I think is something that can move in the Senate if we can get it up, and it would be both sentencing reform and prison reform,” Grassley said. While he did not elaborate on the nature of the agreement, he said he’s been in talks to get the compromise legislation moving in the lame-duck session between November’s elections and the end of the current Congress in January.

A committee aide said the in-the-works deal rolls in several elements of the SRCA, including reductions in mandatory minimums, increased flexibility for judges to set lower sentences, change to how 924(c) enhancements for drug crimes are calculated and Fair Sentencing Act of 2010 retroactivity.

Conservative Republicans who oppose FIRST STEP lost traction last week with the forced resignation of Attorney General Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III, who had previously infuriated Grassley with his unsubtle lobbying to kill SRCA in Committee. Last week, the Fraternal Order of Police, a vigorous opponent of SRCA last March, issued a press release supporting the amended FIRST STEP.

What’s more, some influential conservative voices favor the amended FIRST STEP Act. The National Review said last Friday that “by a 360–59 vote, the House adopted prison reform via the FIRST STEP Act. The Senate should add sentencing-reform language before full adoption.”

There is a chance some controversial elements of prison reform, such as increased “good time,” could still fall by the wayside in order to mollify some conservative concerns with the existing legislation, according to Rep. Doug Collins (R-Georgia), the House FIRST STEP Act (H.R. 5682) sponsor. But not including sentencing reform in the package could alienate Democrats needed to ensure the compromise legislation passes both chambers. Longtime sentencing reform advocate Sen. Durbin and other Democrats like Sen. Cory Booker (D-New Jersey) and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-California) had previously opposed FIRST STEP because it did not include sentencing reform. The three instead pushed for the Grassley/Durbin-sponsored SRCA, although they don’t appear to have been involved in crafting the Senate Judiciary Committee chairman’s compromise legislation.


cornyn181113Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, the majority whip and main sponsor of the Senate version of FIRST STEP, said last month that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) will have a tight schedule to fill, between confirming the backlog of two dozen judges and keeping the government open ahead of a Dec. 7 funding deadline. “Certainly Sen. McConnell is going to prioritize federal judicial nominations, but if there is the will to move on legislation, that would be included,” Cornyn said. However, with Republicans not just retaining, but building on their majority in the Senate for the next Congress, the pressure may be off McConnell to push through judicial appointments before next term.

Those advocating for reform have an ally in the White House: President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner has championed passage of FIRST STEP for months, and Trump himself has continued to say he would support the Act.

A CNN report last week suggested continuing White House interest in FIRST STEP. CNN said that former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, whom CNN says is a front-runner to be President Trump’s new attorney general, attended a “law enforcement roundtable on prison reform efforts at the White House on Thursday morning.” Christie then met privately with the President’s son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner to further discuss prison reform issues. An administration official said Kushner and Christie have “a really close and good working relationship, particularly as it relates to prison reform.”


Some reform advocates worry that pushing too hard to add too much to a reform package could jeopardize the progress made by FIRST STEP. Kevin Ring, president for FAMM, said there are real people who will have their lives improved by the bill, and they could easily end up with no legislation at all. “We’d greatly prefer having the sentencing be a part of it, but we don’t want to hold out for everything and end up with nothing,” he said.


For Hopwood, the next two months presents a choice between trying to help as many people as possible now and going for the long haul. “What you’re saying when you hold out for systemic reform is, ‘We don’t want to help the lives of people who are in the system for 20 years,’ because it might be that long,” Hopwood said.

Law360, Hard Decisions Loom In Lame-Duck Push For Sentencing Reform (Nov. 4, 2018)

CNN, Trump considering Christie, Bondi, Acosta for attorney general (Nov. 8)

National Review, The Lame-Duck Session Should Sprain Trump’s Wrist (Nov. 9)

– Thomas L. Root

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Trump’s Way or the Highway on Sentencing Reform – Update for October 17, 2018

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We post news and comment on federal criminal justice issues, focused primarily on trial and post-conviction matters, legislative initiatives, and sentencing issues.

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TRUMP SAYS HE’LL OVERRULE SESSIONS ON SUPPORTING FIRST STEP
Attorney General Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III
Attorney General Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III

Anyone who remembers recent sentencing reform history will recall that when Attorney General Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III was a senator from Alabama, he led the charge against the Sentencing Reform and Corrections Act of 2015. And last winter, Sessions infuriated Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) when he sent an open letter to the Committee telling it not to vote out the 2017 version of SRCA.

With Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) gun shy about bringing the compromise FIRST STEP Act to a vote if there is insufficient support, Sessions could be a real impediment to passage of sentencing and prison reform.

That’s why President Trump’s statement last Thursday that he would overrule Sessions if he tries to stymie efforts to overhaul the criminal justice system is so significant. In a wide-ranging interview on “Fox & Friends,” the President said he would shut down any Sessions opposition to congressional passage of the compromise FIRST STEP Act. “

When asked whether Sessions is standing in the way of criminal justice reform, Trump said the decision is not up to the attorney general. “He gets overruled by me,” Trump said. “I make the decision, he doesn’t.”

“We do need reform, and that doesn’t mean easy,” the president said during the 40-minute interview. “We’re going to make certain categories tougher when it comes to drug dealing and other things, but there has to be a reform because it is very unfair right now. It’s very unfair to African-Americans. It is very unfair to everybody, and it is also very costly.”

nothappen181016Sessions, a law-and-order candidate now in the doghouse with Trump over the Mueller Russia probe, played a role in successfully urging the president to put off action on criminal justice reform before the midterm elections. But Trump now seems to have made the issue a top priority, thanks in large measure to the advocacy of senior White House adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner.

“Jared Kushner has kept the president in the loop and today’s statements by the president are indicative that he’s interested in this issue and is the one that will make the final decision,” The Hill quoted a person it said was familiar with the discussion. Kushner reportedly briefs Trump regularly on the status of sentencing reform.

Trump’s comments came just before he had lunch with the rapper Kanye West and former Cleveland Browns star Jim Brown, who are expected to urge Trump to move forward with sentencing and prison reforms.

kardashian180604Last June, West’s wife, Kim Kardashian persuaded Trump to commute the sentence of Alice Marie Johnson, a 63-year-old grandmother who was serving a life sentence for a first-time drug offense committed in the early 1990s.

Trump said Kardashian “brought the attention to Mrs. Johnson” and said it was unfair that she received such a long sentence.

The Hill, Trump: I’ll overrule Sessions on criminal justice reform (Oct. 11, 2018)

Politico, Trump: ‘I make the decision’ on prison reform, not Sessions’ (Oct. 11, 2018)

– Thomas L. Root
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