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SENTENCE REDUCTION ODDS AREN’T GREAT, USSC DATA SHOW

The United States Sentencing Commission released some interesting retrospective data on Wednesday, showing that winning sentence reductions based on retroactive Guidelines is not necessarily a sure bet.

While you’re losing in a casino, you’re often given free drinks. In federal court, not so often…

In November 2023, the Commission adopted Amendment 821, which changed how criminal history is calculated for purposes of figuring a defendant’s advisory sentencing range. The USSC did away with “status points,” the extra two criminal history points applied when a new offense is committed while the offender is on parole, supervised release, or probation. On the other end of the spectrum, the Commission decided that a defendant who had zero criminal history points was entitled to a two-level reduction in his or her Total Offense Level.

The structure of the process for winning a sentence reduction based on Guidelines changes that are deemed retroactive is governed by 18 USC § 3582(c)(2). If the defendant is eligible (which is not the slam-dunk you might think it is), the district court is nevertheless entitled to determine with almost unreviewable discretion whether the offender deserves all of the break offered by the new lower Guideline, some of the break, or none at all.

Since the Commission’s change in status points became effective, 15,177 federal inmates (9.6% of the prison population) have applied for reduction. Of those, district courts across the nation granted 36%, only about a third of the motions filed. Out of districts with more than 100 applications filed, Eastern Wisconsin was the toughest (97.2% denied), with Southern Iowa, Southern New York, Minnesota, and Eastern Arkansas in second place, all around an 80% denial rate. Maryland (93.8% approval rate), Kansas (66.1% approval), and Northern Alabama (61.0% approval) were the best.

Defendants who sought the zero-point criminal history reduction hardly fared better. Out of 11,749 applications (7.4% of the inmate population) to have the Guidelines 2-level reduction applied, only 32.2% received reductions. Out of districts with more than 100 applications filed, Arizona (91.2% denied), followed by Southern Iowa (89.7% denied) and South Dakota (88.3% denied) were the worst places for a prisoner to be. The best place to get a status point reduction was South Dakota (88.3% denied), with Eastern Texas (64.0% approval rate), Middle Florida (61.1% approval), and New Jersey (47.7% approval) as runners up.

The Commission also released compassionate release numbers through March 2025. Since the inception of inmate-filed motions under 18 USC § 3582(c)(1)(A) – the so-called compassionate release motion – with passage of the First Step Act in December 2018, 12,916 motions have been filed, with 13.7% granted. Through March 2025, the success rate has held roughly steady – 89 such motions have been granted, 13.4% of the total filed.

US Sentencing Commission, Part A of the 2023 Criminal History Amendment Retroactivity Data Report (May 14, 2025)

US Sentencing Commission, Part B of the 2023 Criminal History Amendment Retroactivity Data Report (May 14, 2025)

US Sentencing Commission, Compassionate Release Data Report, Preliminary Fiscal Year 2025 Cumulative Data through 2nd Quarter (May 14, 2025)

– Thomas L. Root