We post news and comment on federal criminal justice issues, focused primarily on trial and post-conviction matters, legislative initiatives, and sentencing issues.

RUMOR CONTROL 101: WHAT HAPPENS ON FEBRUARY 1? (HINT: NOTHING)

My inbox has been flooded in the last few weeks with people wondering what all will happen today, Thursday, February 1st. One said changes in the gun laws will go into effect. Another heard that the meth laws will change. Another explained that all criminal history points from prior state convictions will be dropped from Guidelines criminal history. A fourth heard that acquitted conduct will be banned for sentencing purposes.

Yesterday, a prisoner complained that people were saying that effective today, FSA credits could be used by everyone, not just low- and minimum- recidivism level inmates. At least this last guy recognized that the rumor was bullshit on stilts, and responded with appropriate disgust.

The plain and sad fact is that NONE OF THESE RUMORS IS TRUE. NONE. ZERO. NADA. ZIP.

Congress is not changing the federal firearms statutes this year. With methamphetamine and fentanyl flowing across the border being a hot campaign issue, no one’s changing those laws, either. Congress can’t even approve a federal budget or aid to Ukraine and Israel, or a plan to stop the border crisis. Passing legislation that benefits a portion of the 160,000 federal prisoners is not on anyone’s radar.

True, the Sentencing Commission is considering what – if anything – to do with acquitted conduct, but any change in the Guidelines is not likely to be retroactive and is 10 months away at least. And the Supremes may cause real upheaval in the federal gun laws when Rahimi is decided in the next five months.

But nothing will happen today.

However, tomorrow… On February 2, the Time Reduction Fairy will emerge from her den. If she sees her shadow, we’re in for another year of no criminal justice reform. The smart money, unfortunately, is that February 2 is going to be sunny.

– Thomas L. Root